Global electric vehicle sales are reaching record levels. According to the International Energy Agency's forecast, in 2026, 29 percent of all new cars will be purely electric models or plug-in hybrids. For comparison, in 2020, this figure was only 4 percent.
The boom was unexpected. Analysts had anticipated more modest results until the war between the US and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp rise in oil and gasoline prices. Since February, the price of Brent has risen by more than 25 percent, and this has spurred buyers in a wide variety of countries.
In South Africa, electric vehicle sales in the first half of the year grew more than fivefold compared to the same period last year. In Laos, shipments of Chinese battery-powered vehicles have increased sharply. In Australia, Colombia, and South Korea, the share of electric vehicles in total new car sales has nearly doubled.
At the same time, in the two largest markets—China and the US—electric vehicle sales have declined this year. In China, this was due to a weakening economy and a reduction in subsidies, while in the US, it was due to the repeal of the federal tax credit of 7500 dollars.
In other regions, the picture is different. Since the beginning of the conflict, electric vehicle sales have doubled in Australia, Brazil, India, and South Korea. According to BloombergNEF, search queries for electric vehicles have grown noticeably precisely in countries with the largest increases in fuel prices.
BloombergNEF analyst Andrew Grant notes that some buyers simply accelerated already planned purchases. At the same time, he adds: if oil prices remain high, electric vehicle sales will turn out to be higher than they would have been otherwise.
More than a dozen governments have already introduced new support measures. Ireland and the Netherlands have launched programs to trade in old cars for electric ones. Chile is incentivizing the transition of buses and taxis, Spain has extended tax breaks, and China has set targets for the electrification of trucks.
The International Energy Agency emphasizes that the crisis has strengthened the arguments for electric vehicles as a way to ensure energy security and reduce fuel costs. Road transport consumes about half of the world's oil.
Chinese manufacturers have already exported 2,4 million electric vehicles in the first half of the year—almost as many as in the entire 2025 year. In Argentina, Australia, Indonesia, New Zealand, and South Africa, Chinese models account for more than 80 percent of electric vehicle sales. Some countries, including Cambodia and Kenya, have temporarily lowered tariffs, and Laos has even banned the import of gasoline-powered cars until the end of 2026.
What will happen to sales if the conflict subsides and oil prices return to previous levels? In the short term, growth may slow down, but in the long term, according to analysts, electric vehicles will continue to gain ground due to the decreasing cost of batteries.
