In the third quarter of 2026, global smartphone shipments declined by 20–22% compared with the same period a year earlier and reached their lowest level for a third quarter since 2012. According to Counterpoint Research, shipment volumes totaled around 255–260 million devices, which is 65–72 million fewer than in Q3 2025. IDC estimates the decline at 22% — to 255,3 million units, noting a record drop for the entire history of observations.
The main cause was the memory crisis: demand for DRAM and NAND chips from AI systems drove component prices up by roughly 350% over the year. Manufacturers are forced to raise retail prices and cut shipment volumes of inexpensive models in order to preserve margins. According to Counterpoint estimates, the average smartphone price has risen by 20% since the start of 2026.
The market leaders — Samsung and Apple — suffered less than the rest. Samsung shipped 57,8 million devices (a share of 22,6–23%), reducing shipments by only 3–5,8%. The company held its position thanks to demand for the foldable Galaxy Z Fold8 and stable supplies of the mid-range Galaxy A series. Apple shipped 57,3 million iPhones (a share of 22,4%), cutting volumes by 4%. Apple's share in the third quarter exceeded 20% for the first time, despite the absence of the base iPhone 18 model from the launch lineup.
Chinese manufacturers suffered more serious losses. Xiaomi cut shipments by more than 29–30% (30,7 million units, a share of 10–12%), OPPO by 34,5% (25,6 million), and vivo by 31,5% (19,1 million). The companies are reducing their presence in the low-price segment and in certain overseas markets to avoid losses from rising production costs.
Analysts at IDC and Counterpoint warn that the market has not yet hit bottom: memory price growth has slowed but remains high, and pressure on margins will persist. Further restraint in volumes is expected in 2027, with a possible recovery no earlier than 2028. Samsung and Apple continue to strengthen their positions in the premium segment, while the mass market is shrinking.
