At a meeting with Middle Eastern leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on 22 September 2026, Donald Trump said that American-Iranian negotiations are "gaining great momentum." A few hours earlier, in his speech before world leaders, he had issued an ultimatum to Tehran: either a deal allowing Iran to "recover and become a great country," or "the destruction of the Islamic Republic."
The statement came after a three-hour meeting between Trump's advisers Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff and Iranian representatives. Trump called the talks "very productive" and promised a new meeting "in the near future." At the same time, he confirmed the goal — preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons — and reminded of his readiness to strike the underground facility "Mountain of the Pickaxe" (Kuh-e Kolang) near Natanz.
For Trump, such a zigzag is not an exception but a consistent pattern. In 2018, he withdrew from the nuclear deal, imposed maximum pressure, and at the same time left the door open for negotiations. In 2020, he ordered Soleimani's elimination, and then sought contacts. In 2026, against the backdrop of an already seven-month conflict, the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, and Houthi strikes, he is repeating the same technique: a public threat of "annihilation" and at the same time a signal of "momentum."
Allies in the region hear both signals at once. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, which were present at the meeting, have long sought both stability and the containment of Iran from Washington. Trump makes clear to them: pressure remains a tool, but a deal is possible — if Tehran "makes the right choice quickly." This makes it possible to preserve the coalition without losing face before his own base, which values toughness.
The public image of a "negotiator who can also strike" diverges from reality: every step toward dialogue is followed by an escalation of rhetoric. This is precisely how Trump preserves the initiative — neither side can be sure what exactly he will choose tomorrow.
As in poker, where a player simultaneously shows a strong hand and offers to buy his way out, Trump uses uncertainty as leverage. This time, the stake is not only the nuclear program but also control over the Strait of Hormuz and regional proxies.
In the end, the statement about "progress" is not a signal of a thaw in relations but a way to keep all participants in suspense while Trump himself decides which move will bring the greater payoff.
