In the Atlantic, where the elements usually rage at the height of the season, an unusual silence has reigned for more than a hundred days. Not a single hurricane since the start of the season — a phenomenon unseen since 1950.
According to meteorologists, the record pause is linked to a powerful El Niño. This climatic phenomenon, which arises in the Pacific Ocean, alters wind currents around the world and creates conditions fatal to the birth of tropical storms in the Atlantic.
Wind shear — a sharp change in wind speed and direction at different altitudes — literally tears apart nascent systems. Air descending over the western part of the Atlantic further suppresses the development of cloud cover and precipitation needed for hurricanes.
By mid-September, the statistical peak of the season, when two or three hurricanes usually form, the Atlantic has counted only five short-lived tropical storms. The last of them, Edouard, barely reached hurricane threshold but was halted off the coast of Texas and Louisiana.
Even in such calm years, the danger does not disappear entirely. Weak storms, like Arthur in June, are capable of bringing catastrophic downpours: in a single day, more than 73 centimetres of rain fell in Louisiana, breaking old records.
History shows that hurricanes sometimes break through even in low-activity seasons. In 1992, when there were only seven storms, Category Five Hurricane Andrew struck Florida with devastating force.
The later part of the season, when systems more often form closer to the U.S. coast, remains under watch. El Niño will continue to influence the atmosphere, but local conditions in the Gulf of Mexico may give individual systems a chance.
The record pause is a reminder: the ocean and the atmosphere are bound by complex threads, and even a powerful suppression of activity does not cancel the risk of sudden outbursts of the elements.
