In September 2026, Russia launches a regulated cryptocurrency market, and Sber has already calculated the first fruits: 3,5–4 trillion rubles, or about 46 billion dollars, in trading turnover on licensed platforms per year. The figure sounds impressive until you compare it with the total volume of crypto activity in the country — approximately 18 trillion rubles annually. It turns out that only a fifth of the market will move to regulated exchanges.
The law, signed by the president in August, permits trading through licensed brokers and exchanges. However, for ordinary investors a strict limit is set — 300 thousand rubles per year per intermediary, plus mandatory testing. At launch, only bitcoin, ether, and the USDT stablecoin are available. Other assets and familiar P2P schemes remain outside the framework.
Sberbank calls its forecast conservative: according to Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov, most transactions will continue to bypass organized platforms. The reason is not only restrictions but also established habits. Russian users have relied for years on offshore services and direct transfers, valuing speed and the absence of excessive control.
Behind this caution lies a deeper calculation. The state gains a tool for oversight and tax accounting, but does not seek to completely drive out the gray segment. A full transition could create excessive pressure on the ruble and complicate sanctions circumvention. Therefore, the regulator leaves a "window" for unregulated channels.
Imagine a river that they try to channel into a narrow canal: water will find a way around if the banks are too high. So it is with money — strict frameworks do not stop the flow, but merely redistribute it. By 2029, Sber expects the regulated volume to grow to 7,5 trillion rubles, but this will happen only with a gradual easing of rules and the trust of participants.
For the average Russian, legalization is not so much an opportunity to earn as a test of how ready the state is to share control over private finances. For now, 80 % of the market remains in the shadows, reminding us: money always seeks freedom, even when the law offers order.
