Bitcoin is trading at around 77 thousand dollars, just a few thousand away from the level that CryptoQuant analysts consider the official start of a new bull market. However, large holders are already actively taking profits, and demand from American funds remains weak. This situation poses a question for investors: is it worth chasing the rally when the "whales" are already exiting?
According to CryptoQuant, to confirm a bull market, Bitcoin needs to close the week above the 81 700 dollar mark — the average price over the past 365 days. In September, the price already approached this zone, but sellers quickly pushed it back. The nearest resistance lies between 77 100 and 80 200 dollars, where long-term holders have offloaded up to 539 thousand coins this year.
The Exchange Whale Ratio has reached 0,93 — a level the firm regards as an alarm signal. It reflects the share of exchange inflows coming from the largest wallets. When such volumes are put up for sale, pressure on the price intensifies, especially if institutional demand from the United States does not offset the outflow.
Interestingly, retail traders are behaving differently: the fear and greed index is in the greed zone at 66, and the buy-to-sell ratio shows a willingness to pay for leverage. This alignment of forces resembles the classic picture of large players selling off assets while smaller ones keep buying on emotion.
Support is located around 70 thousand dollars and in the 62–65 thousand range. That is precisely where about 476 thousand coins have accumulated this year. If the price pulls back, these levels could become an entry point for those willing to wait for a more confident signal.
For the ordinary investor, the situation boils down to a simple choice: either take a risk on volatility in hopes of a breakout, or wait for trend confirmation. History shows that sharp surges without sustained demand often end in pullbacks, and patience in such cycles often proves more profitable than haste.
Ultimately, Bitcoin remains in a zone of uncertainty, where the behavior of whales and institutions determines whether the current rise becomes the start of a new cycle or just another attempt.
