Global markets reacted on Tuesday, August 11, 2026, with sharp increases in energy prices and U.S. Treasury yields, driven by a new escalation of the diplomatic crisis between Washington and Tehran. Mutual demands for reparations have made a potential deal to resume shipping in the Strait of Hormuz virtually unattainable.
Mutual Claims and Stalled Negotiations
U.S. President Donald Trump responded to Iranian demands with unprecedented counter-claims, tasking his negotiators to seek compensation from Tehran for attacks he attributes to Iran over recent decades, including the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole destroyer. Later, on the Truth Social network, Trump expanded this list, stating that Iran must also pay damages for fatalities in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza.
For its part, Tehran, which has endured five months of U.S. and Israeli bombings, is demanding its own compensation. The Iranian side states that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until Washington lifts its naval blockade, rescinds sanctions, and unfreezes frozen assets.
The current pause in negotiations is deliberate; Trump admitted that the U.S. is operating “without fanfare,” preferring economic pressure and waiting for inflation to deplete Iran’s treasury. Meanwhile, despite Trump’s triumphant claims of “100 percent control” over the strait, data from Kpler indicates that traffic has fallen from a pre-war 130–140 vessels to just 6–11 passages per day.
Market Reaction: Oil and Bonds
Traders interpreted the exchange of ultimatums as a sign that an agreement would be indefinitely postponed. Brent crude futures rose by approximately 2.5%, trading around $89.8 per barrel, while U.S. WTI reached $84.2.
U.S. Treasury yields simultaneously surged as investors began selling off debt, fearing that expensive oil would fuel global inflation. Yields on 30-year bonds surpassed 5.27%, 10-year notes reached 4.7%, and 2-year notes hit 4.25%, all setting new yearly highs. Money markets now assign a 50/50 probability to a Fed interest rate hike in September.
Analyst Forecasts: Gold, Oil, and Other Resources
Amidst the protracted crisis, analysts are revising their forecasts for key commodity assets, pondering whether gold or oil offers better capital protection against wartime inflation.
- Gold: The precious metal’s traditional status as a “safe haven” has been threatened in this conflict. Due to rising bond yields and inflation, gold began losing ground, depreciating by over 1.5% during certain periods (though currently showing an increase). Analysts at major investment banks, such as Goldman Sachs, have already lowered their gold price forecast for December 2026, noting that high interest rates make non-yielding assets less appealing to institutional investors.
- Oil: The “black gold” market remains extremely volatile. This year, prices had already surpassed $97 per barrel amid doubts about a truce, then dipped below $74 during brief periods of optimism. To mitigate the shock of the effective blockade of the strait, the International Energy Agency (IEA) was compelled to approve the historic release of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves.
- Macroeconomics and Other Resources: The geopolitical shock is already impacting real economies. For instance, the German government was forced to halve its economic growth forecast for 2026 (from 1% to 0.5%) due to the repercussions of the Iranian conflict. Analysts warn that as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively paralyzed, global markets for commodities, metals, and energy will stay in a zone of maximum risk, with any news from the front lines triggering sharp price fluctuations.
