The current El Niño is unfolding with unprecedented force. According to forecasters, by November-January it could become the strongest event in recorded history. The probability that this will be a super El Niño — an event with a peak of more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal — is more than 90%.
Sea surface temperatures in key regions of the Pacific Ocean are already breaking records for temperature anomalies. They surpass the levels of the 1997, 2015, and 2023 episodes. At the current rate, the deviation from normal in the Pacific could reach 3,6 degrees Celsius or even higher — an unprecedented scale.
Global air and sea surface temperatures are updating historical highs. On 22 August 2026, the average sea surface temperature of the world's oceans outside polar zones reached a record 21,1 degrees Celsius, exceeding the previous record of March 2024 by a hundredth of a degree. Notably, this occurred in August — a month when climatologists typically expect temperatures to decline. Researchers note that "such a shift indicates fundamental changes in the behavior of the global ocean."
The phenomenon is intensifying amid long-term warming due to anthropogenic impact on the climate. El Niño adds thermal stress to a climate system already heating from greenhouse gas emissions. Scientists note a rare case in history — three powerful El Niños in less than 11 years (2015, 2023, and 2026). This confirms the growing suspicion that anthropogenic climate change may be increasing both the frequency and intensity of these events.
The consequences are already being calculated by international organizations. According to estimates by the UN World Food Programme, the El Niño of 2026–2027 could push an additional 49 million people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027. This would raise the number of people facing food security crises in 45 vulnerable countries from 225 million to 274 million — an increase of 22%. Central America and Southern Africa will be particularly hard hit, where the number of hungry people could rise by 83% and 75%, respectively.
The peak of the event is expected between November and January, with the greatest impact on global temperatures typically occurring in 2027. One of the main uncertainties is the final intensity of the event, but current models converge with rare confidence for such forecasts that this will be one of the strongest El Niños ever recorded.
