According to the latest data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the probability of a strong El Niño developing by the end of 2023 exceeds 95 percent. This phenomenon has already begun to manifest in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures have risen 1.5 degrees above the long-term average.
A powerful El Niño is capable of disrupting normal weather patterns across the globe. Droughts are expected in Australia and Indonesia, which will impact wheat and rice harvests, while South America faces torrential rains and flooding. Such shifts directly influence food and energy prices in dozens of countries.
The intensification of the phenomenon is rooted in the weakening of the trade winds, which usually push warm waters toward the west. When these winds die down, heat accumulates along the coast of South America and spreads across the equator. Meteorological models indicate that the current cycle may exceed the intensity of the 1997–1998 and 2015–2016 events.
To illustrate: if the ocean were compared to a giant thermostat, turning off the trade-wind fan allows heat to quickly fill the entire room. This is precisely what satellite water temperature measurements have captured over the past few months.
The consequences are already apparent through anomalous heat in several regions and shifts in tropical cyclone tracks. Experts emphasize that the exact scale of the impact will only become clear as the phenomenon unfolds in the coming quarters.
