The morning of August 20, 2026, began relatively calmly on the Sun. Active region 4513, which had only just rotated onto the visible side of the disk from the far side yesterday, had already managed to make its presence felt. At 08:05 UTC, it produced an M1.8 class flare—the second M-flare in a day and, at that moment, the strongest in August. Against the backdrop of a general decline in solar activity and a typically quiet summer Sun, this event appeared notable, though it was far from record-breaking. The energy in the region seemed to be gradually depleting, and an X-class flare appeared unlikely.
However, within a few hours, the picture changed. At 11:38 UTC, the X-ray flux exceeded the M5 threshold, and at 11:42 UTC, the flare reached a peak of M8.1. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center recorded an R2-level event—a moderate radio blackout. It fell short of X-class by approximately 20 percent of its power.
The source of both flares is the same region 4513, located near the eastern limb of the solar disk (around N04E66–E85). It continues to release energy, although, in terms of size, it has long been "burning" more than is typically expected. Observers noted that nature would sooner or later take its course, and the fuel supply should run out in the next one to two days. Nevertheless, the M8.1 flare was accompanied by type II radio bursts at a speed of about 1201 km/s, which indicates a fairly dynamic process.
For Earth, these events are currently neutral. The active region is too close to the limb, and any plasma ejections, if they occurred, are not directed toward us. Coronagraphic data did not show any coronal mass ejections oriented toward the planet. However, the sunspot group has only a few days left to reach the zone where its influence on Earth's magnetosphere becomes possible. For now, the scenario in which the region persists long enough no longer seems impossible.
The Sun, even during the decline of the 25 cycle, is capable of surprises. What looked like a short-lived burst of energy at the edge of the disk turned into the most powerful event of August. Astronomers continue to monitor region 4513: its future behavior will show whether this remains a local flare or the beginning of a more notable period of activity. For now, the August sky over Earth remains calm, and the Sun—majestic and unpredictable.
