In early November 2026, an unusual combination of events took shape on the Sun that immediately drew the attention of space weather specialists. First, one of the largest coronal holes of the year came into view — a region of reduced density and temperature in the solar corona about a million kilometers in diameter. Such structures release accelerated streams of plasma into space. According to calculations, Earth was to enter this stream on the night of 6 to 7 November UTC and remain in it for several days.
Already on 5 November, an M3.6 flare erupted from sunspot group 4566, located not far from the center of the solar disk. This became the strongest event since the beginning of October. The group had a relatively modest area but a magnetic configuration of the highest level of complexity — beta-gamma-delta. Such fields are capable of accumulating significant energy.
On 6 November, observers noted that the large coronal hole was about to become geoeffective. The arrival of a fast solar wind and weak to moderate geomagnetic disturbances of level G1–G2 was expected. At the same time, flare activity began to rise.
On 7 November, the picture became clearer. Earth entered a stream of high-speed solar wind at a velocity above 650 km/s. The NOAA National Space Weather Prediction Center issued a warning: from 19:35 UTC on 7 November to 21:00 UTC on 8 November, a Kp index of 5 was expected, corresponding to a minor G1 geomagnetic storm. On the same day, group 4566 produced a series of M-class flares, including events M1.2, M1.4 and M1.9. According to the Solar Astronomy Laboratory of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, over the day of 7 November (Moscow time), 29 flares were officially recorded on the Sun — all from one single group, 4566. This repeated the record of the 21st century, previously achieved only on 5 May 2022 and on 10 December 2024. The Sun has not yet crossed the threshold of 30 flares in a day in the current century.
On 8 November, the solar wind speed exceeded 750 km/s. A minor G1 geomagnetic storm was observed for about six hours. The large sunspot of group 4566 turned out to be almost exactly opposite Earth. In recent days, the number of M-flares from this region reached six. NOAA estimated the probability of an X-class flare on 8 November at 20 percent, but the nature of the "crackling" activity, according to a number of observers, pointed to higher chances. The group continued to grow and retained a complex magnetic structure.
Events unfolded in sequence: first, the large coronal hole set the background in the form of an accelerated solar wind, then against this background one active region became energized, which single-handedly produced a record daily number of flares. So far, coronal mass ejections capable of causing stronger disturbances had not been recorded on significant scales. Geomagnetic effects remained at the G1 level, which usually manifests as auroras at high latitudes and minor fluctuations in power grids.
By 9 November, the stream from the coronal hole was still affecting near-Earth space, and group 4566 remained at the center of the disk. Solar activity, having emerged from a period of relative calm, showed how quickly a single complex sunspot group can change the picture of space weather. Further development will depend on whether region 4566 retains its magnetic complexity and manages to produce more powerful flares while it is in a favorable position relative to Earth.
