After nearly a month of relative calm, the Sun suddenly came to life on 5–6 October 2026. At the center of the visible disk, aimed almost directly at Earth, two large sunspot groups quickly grew. They became the source of a series of moderate-class M flares and coronal mass ejections that are now racing toward our planet.
In the evening of 5 October, at around 18:48 UTC, an impulsive M1.0 flare erupted in sunspot group AR4545 — the strongest of the previous month. It was only the first signal. By the morning of 6 October, activity had sharply accelerated. In the new, rapidly growing group AR4549 (with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration), a long-duration M1.4 flare occurred at around 06:10 UTC, and at approximately 08:05 UTC, another one followed, M1.8–M1.9. Both flares caused brief R1-level radio blackouts on the sunlit side of Earth.
Space coronagraphs recorded the aftermath. A full-fledged halo coronal mass ejection tore away from the M1.4 flare — a complete 'halo' of plasma around the solar disk. The density of material is slightly higher in the northern part, but the direction clearly points toward Earth. The second ejection, associated with the M1.9 flare, is weaker, yet it too has headed our way. Observers are already speaking of a possible 'train' of plasma clouds: if activity continues, Earth could receive several successive impacts.
According to preliminary NOAA models, the main ejection from M1.4 could reach near-Earth space in the early morning of 9 October UTC. For now, the absolute energy level is moderate — the flares do not reach the powerful X-class. However, the location of the active regions almost exactly at the center of the disk makes even such events potentially significant. The sunspots continue to grow, and in the coming days the probability of new M-class flares remains elevated, while reaching X-class is not entirely ruled out.
The Solar Astronomy Laboratory of the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences notes: after the long 'depression' of late summer and September, the current surge may mark the beginning of a turning point in solar cycle 25. For now, the threat to technology and people is limited, but the sequence of events is already taking shape. First — the rapid growth of sunspots directly facing Earth. Then — a series of flares. Now — confirmed plasma ejections flying toward us.
Solar activity is developing rapidly. Scientists continue to refine the trajectories and speeds of the clouds. In the coming day, models will show how dense the 'train' will be and what geomagnetic effect it will bring. One thing is clear for now: after a long lull, the Sun is making itself known again — and doing so in the very place most convenient for observation from Earth.
