After the strong geomagnetic storms of last week On 15 October 2026, the Sun once again drew attention to itself. By morning, the large sunspot group AR4551 was almost exactly at the center of the visible disk facing Earth. Its magnetic structure is notably complex — a configuration observers call potentially explosive. So far the region is producing only C-class flares, but the probability of M-class events remains elevated.
At approximately 08:26–08:33 UTC, specialists recorded two large plasma filaments at once, which tore away from the solar surface one after another. Such structures carry powerful electric currents, and when they break, the electromagnetic field in these layers of the Sun changes dynamically. Observers immediately wondered whether this destabilization would affect the activity of the nearby large sunspot AR4551.
A transequatorial coronal hole is facing Earth. Enhanced solar wind could arrive in ~3 days - Follow live on spaceweather.live/l/ch
At the same time, a transequatorial coronal hole was becoming ever more distinct on the disk. By the evening of 15 October, it was already facing Earth. According to estimates, the enhanced solar wind stream from it may arrive in about three days. Additionally, a positively polarized coronal hole is noted to be approaching the central meridional zone. For mid-October, such polarity is favorable from the standpoint of the Russell–McPherron effect: it raises the chances of a more southward orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field and, accordingly, of stronger geomagnetic effects.
High-latitude regions can look forward to notable auroras in about a week, when the stream from this hole becomes dominant. At middle latitudes, isolated sporadic displays are possible, though everything will depend on the exact density and speed of the wind, as well as on the orientation of the magnetic field.
Official data confirm the quiet background of the past day: solar wind speed gradually declined, and geomagnetic conditions remained quiet to slightly unsettled. No new coronal mass ejections directed straight at Earth were recorded. Nevertheless, the combination of a large active sunspot at the center of the disk, fresh ruptures of plasma filaments, and approaching coronal holes creates conditions under which the situation could change quickly.
The series of October events continues. After the powerful strikes at the beginning of the month, the Sun has shifted into a more restrained but still dynamic mode. Observations of AR4551 and the development of coronal holes are especially important right now: they will determine whether the coming week remains relatively calm or brings new geomagnetic disturbances.
