Against a backdrop of geopolitical tension and rising airfares, international tourism in 2026 is showing a paradox: the total number of arrivals is approaching a historic high, yet travellers are increasingly choosing nearby destinations.
According to the WTM Global Travel Report 2026, prepared jointly with Tourism Economics and presented at WTM London, international overnight arrivals will reach 1,57 billion — 2% more than in 2025. Visitor spending, meanwhile, will rise by 6% to reach 1,8 trillion dollars.
Short trips worldwide have gained 3%, while interregional flights have fallen by 3%. The reason is the conflict in Iran, higher aviation fuel prices and the general rise in the cost of living, which have hit long-haul routes especially hard.
The Middle East has lost 40% international arrivals. Europe, by contrast, expects growth of 5%, and Africa and Oceania 8% each. North America, despite the football World Cup, will manage only 2% and will remain 6% below its 2019 level.
Travellers are increasingly looking for value for money: the share of those who choose a destination precisely on this criterion has grown from one in eleven to one in six. At the same time, interest in luxury destinations remains stable at 12%, and 56% of respondents are prepared to combine savings on some expense items with spending on meaningful experiences.
Technology is changing behaviour too: 36% of respondents trust AI with making bookings, and 53% trust it with destination recommendations. The motivation for a holiday is shifting towards relaxation and switching off from everyday life — this factor was named by 37% of respondents, against 31% the year before.
If tension in the region eases, long-haul trips could recover by 11% in 2027, and global growth in arrivals could reach 8%. For now, the industry is adapting, keeping leisure as the priority even under pressure on household budgets.
