Bitcoin is trading in a narrow corridor of $77–80K, though not long ago it seemed ready for a new surge. August CPI data came in mixed: annual inflation remained at 3.4%, while core inflation fell to 2.4%, its lowest level in five years. However, the monthly rise in core CPI of 0.3% exceeded expectations, and markets sharply revised their forecasts.
The probability of a Fed rate hike of 25 basis points on September 16 has risen to 85–90%. Goldman Sachs has changed its position and now expects tightening. For an asset positioned as a hedge against inflation and an instrument independent of central banks, such a reaction looks paradoxical.
High rates make borrowed money more expensive, reduce appetite for risk, and reallocate capital in favor of more reliable instruments. Bitcoin, despite its decentralized nature, remains sensitive to global liquidity. When investors anticipate tightening, they cut positions in volatile assets — from tech company stocks to cryptocurrencies.
Over the past weeks, several hundred million dollars have flowed out of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. At the same time, Treasury bond yields were rising. These flows show that even large players continue to evaluate crypto through the lens of traditional macroeconomics, rather than through the narrative of "digital gold."
Imagine a river that claims to flow independently but ultimately empties into the same ocean of global capital. Bitcoin can exist outside the banking system, yet its price is still determined by how expensive money is in that system. When the Fed tightens policy, the cost of borrowing rises and "excess" funds leave risky segments.
Historically, periods of "higher for longer" coincided with corrections in the crypto market. Now the market is pricing in not only a September hike but also possible moves through the end of 2026. This changes long-term expectations and forces a reassessment of portfolios.
An investor should remember: even the most independent assets remain part of a single financial ecosystem, where central bank decisions affect all asset classes.
