An international team led by Chinese scientists has reported a new phenomenon that could help predict major earthquakes. The researchers described "seismic ripples" — ring-shaped disturbances in seismic, magnetic and ionospheric signals that arise before tremors.
In a paper published in the peer-reviewed journal NPJ Natural Hazards, the team tested the method on data from 12 major earthquakes in China in 2022–2024. Out of 12 regions where anomalous signals were recorded, in 83% cases (10 out of 12) an earthquake occurred within three months.
Scientists from institutions in mainland China, Taiwan, Brazil and Japan analyzed data from seismometers, magnetometers and ground-based GNSS receivers. The two cases in which the signals failed were linked to an atypical focal depth.
"Historically, earthquake prediction was considered almost impossible," the authors note. Their work challenges this view and opens a new path for research.
One of the lead authors, Professor Chen Jiehong of Chengdu University of Technology, emphasized that the team does not claim it is already possible to predict earthquakes to within minutes or a few kilometers. According to USGS criteria, a full-fledged forecast requires specifying the date, time, location and magnitude.
The magnitude in the forecasts turned out on average to be 0,5 units higher than the actual one. The method has shown potential, but requires further verification on large data sets and in different regions.
Could this phenomenon really change the approach to seismology in the long term?
