In Russia, where cryptocurrency long existed in a grey zone, its total volume has unexpectedly been estimated at 3.7 trillion rubles — around 44 billion dollars. Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov announced these figures at the Moscow Financial Forum, citing expert estimates: more than 20 million people hold digital assets directly or through related products. Daily turnover, meanwhile, reaches 50 billion rubles.
The figures look impressive against the backdrop of official Central Bank data, which previously recorded only 720 billion rubles on platforms in the first quarter. The gap is explained simply: a significant portion of transactions and storage still takes place outside Russian jurisdiction. It is precisely these offshore flows that the authorities are now targeting.
The new law on digital currencies, which came into force in September, introduces licensing for exchangers and depositories, and from July 2027 — criminal liability for the illegal organisation of trading. At the same time, ordinary civil transactions remain outside the zone of harsh sanctions. Regulators promise to create a transparent infrastructure, including Russian stablecoins, but warn: if a foreign issuer freezes assets, the losses will fall on the investor.
Behind this logic lies a clear state interest — to regain control over flows that are estimated at 10 trillion rubles a year. For now, a significant part of capital and transactions slips away from taxation and oversight, like water through fingers. Drawing assets into domestic depositories should, by design, reduce money-laundering risks while at the same time giving the market legitimacy for institutional players.
For the ordinary crypto holder, this means a choice: either remain in the shadows with the risk of blockings and losses, or come under the wing of the regulator with its rules and fees. The analogy here is simple — like a gardener deciding whether to leave rare plants in a wild greenhouse or transplant them into a controlled hothouse, where they will grow, but under supervision.
The difference in estimates — from 720 billion according to the Central Bank to 3.7 trillion according to the Finance Ministry — is a reminder of how shaky the data in this sphere are. Experts note that the real picture may be even broader, and an influx of new users in 2027 could add another 10 million people.
In the end, the state is not merely recording the market's growth but striving to pull it into its own contour — with guarantees for itself and warnings for participants. The question now facing every holder of digital assets is how comfortable it is to live in this new, more transparent but also more controlled space.
