On June 17, 2026, the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its key interest rate within the 3.50–3.75% range. The decision was reached unanimously during the first meeting chaired by its new leader, Kevin Warsh.
This marked the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change. The vote passed without a single dissent — a rare occurrence over the past year.
In its official statement, the Fed removed language that previously pointed to potential rate cuts. The text was shortened nearly three-fold, down to just 132 words.
New quarterly projections showed that nine out of 18 committee members expect a rate hike by the end of 2026. The median estimate now suggests a rate of 3.8%.
Warsh himself did not submit his own quarterly projection. According to him, such forecasts can potentially limit policy flexibility.
At the press conference, the Fed Chair emphasized his commitment to the 2% inflation target. Markets reacted with a rise in Treasury yields and a decline in equity indices.
While only time will tell what lies ahead, the new leadership's first move has already signaled a more cautious approach to easing.
The decision was in line with the expectations of most analysts. However, the changes in communication and forecasts proved to be the primary signal for the markets.
