The European Union needs to accelerate the development of renewable energy if it aims for genuine energy sovereignty. This is the conclusion reached by experts from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) in their latest report, which compares the effectiveness of green energy and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.
An Already Working Substitution Mechanism
According to the research data, increasing the capacity of wind and solar power plants, as well as the widespread adoption of heat pumps, is already the most effective long-term solution for reducing dependence on fossil fuels. In 2024 alone, these technologies have displaced 8.8 billion cubic meters of LNG. For comparison, this volume is equivalent to two-thirds of all liquefied gas purchased by the European Union from Qatar during the same period.
Prospects until 2030
IEEFA analysts emphasize that ambitious yet achievable goals can lead to a radical reduction in gas demand. According to expert estimates, if the EU annually commissions at least 4 million heat pumps in the next five years, and adds 75 GW of solar and 22 GW of wind generation capacity, gas demand in the bloc will decrease by approximately 25% by 2030. This would save an amount of LNG that is double the potential future imports from Qatar.
The Trap of New Dependence
The report highlights an important paradox in current European energy policy. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the EU did indeed manage to sharply reduce its dependence on Russian pipeline gas. However, this vulnerability has been replaced by another: the bloc has critically increased its LNG imports, reorienting mainly towards suppliers from the United States and Qatar.
LNG imports into the European Union grew by 84% between 2021 and 2025. This strategy makes Europe vulnerable to geopolitical shocks in other regions of the world. Examples cited in the study include recent damage to export facilities in Qatar and growing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global energy supplies passes.
The Risk of Swapping One Supplier for Another
The report's authors warn that in its haste to shed dependence on volatile fossil fuel markets, Europe risks falling into a new trap. The accelerated transition to green technologies requires a huge amount of equipment, the production of which is currently largely concentrated in China. Without developing its own manufacturing capacities and diversifying the supply of critical components, the EU could trade dependence on gas monopolies for dependence on Chinese manufacturers and their associated logistics networks.
Conclusion
The IEEFA report serves as a clear signal to European policymakers: short-term solutions, such as replacing one type of imported fuel with another, do not ensure long-term security. True energy sovereignty is only possible with large-scale and systemic investments in its own renewable energy sector, accompanied by a well-thought-out strategy to reduce dependence on foreign supply chains for green technologies.
