Bitcoin has again crossed the 77 500 dollar mark, and XRP has surged to lead among major altcoins. The market reacted to the fall in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike to 62 percent — just a day ago it was estimated at 67 percent. Behind this figure is not just statistics, but a real redistribution of capital between risk assets and safe-haven instruments.
According to CoinDesk, bitcoin gained about 1,5 percent in a day and settled above 77 600 dollars. Buyers defended the average entry price of active investors at 76 350 dollars. XRP rose nearly 3 percent to 1,36 dollars, BNB added almost 2 percent, and Solana held at 100 dollars. Ether, in contrast, lagged and traded just below 2400 dollars. Over the week, most coins are still in the red, but intraday dynamics show a return of risk appetite.
The key driver is expectations about monetary policy. The CME FedWatch Tool records a decrease in the odds of a rate hike of 0,25 percentage points on 16 September. Friday's U.S. employment report could ultimately determine the direction: weak data would strengthen hopes for a softer stance by the regulator. At the same time, the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds has risen above 4,8 percent — the highest since 2023 — and the dollar has strengthened. This is a classic conflict: a strong dollar usually weighs on crypto, but the reduced likelihood of tightening outweighs that.
The institutional backdrop remains mixed. Spot bitcoin ETFs lost about 236 million dollars in a day, stablecoin inflows slowed, and more coins were deposited to exchanges. Bitfinex analysts warn of seasonality: September is historically one of the weakest months for bitcoin, with an average return of minus 2,95 percent since 2013. Nevertheless, the defense of the 76 350 dollar level suggests that long-term holders are in no hurry to lock in losses.
For the average investor, the situation boils down to a simple choice: how comfortable it is to hold assets sensitive to liquidity when the central bank could unexpectedly tighten conditions. The drop in the odds of a hike is not a guarantee of growth, but merely a temporary easing of pressure on the cost of borrowing. Those who view crypto as part of their portfolio now see how macroeconomic expectations directly affect the volatility of their savings.
The cryptocurrency market increasingly behaves like a barometer of rate expectations: when the probability of tightening falls, capital returns more quickly to risk instruments. The only question is how sustainable this momentum will prove after Friday's employment data.
