An M5.8-class solar flare recorded on May 9 was accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME) that is projected to pass near Earth on May 13. This event comes amid rising solar activity in the current cycle, with sunspot numbers already exceeding the averages of the previous period.
While a direct CME hit can trigger geomagnetic disturbances affecting satellite communications and power grids, the glancing blow expected in this case should lessen those effects. Nevertheless, auroras may appear at latitudes where they are not typically seen. Power grid operators in northern regions have already been warned of potential voltage fluctuations.
The flare originated from a concentration of magnetic fields in active region AR3664. When magnetic tension reaches a critical threshold, the fields realign, releasing energy as X-ray radiation and a plasma eruption. NASA and NOAA models indicate the CME is traveling at approximately 800 km/s, with a trajectory passing roughly 0.3 astronomical units from the Sun-Earth line.
By comparison, if the ejection were headed directly for Earth, solar wind speeds could reach 600-700 km/s and trigger a G3-level storm. With this glancing blow, the Kp index is unlikely to exceed 5, which corresponds to a moderate storm. This difference is determined by the angle at which the magnetic cloud encounters the planet's magnetosphere.
The impact on daily life will likely be limited to enhanced auroras over Canada, Scandinavia, and northern Russia. Amateur radio operators may experience brief shortwave disruptions at frequencies below 10 MHz. Spacecraft in geostationary orbit will receive an additional radiation dose, though satellite shielding is designed to withstand such levels.
Solar activity will continue to climb until the cycle peaks in 2025, making events like this more frequent. While real-time monitoring allows for early measures to protect infrastructure, the accuracy of CME trajectory forecasts remains limited due to the complexity of modeling interplanetary magnetic fields.
