The Sun has shown relative calm in the last 24 hours after several days of intense activity. Only nine C-class flares, weak energy pulses that pose no significant risk to Earth, were registered in 24 hours.
However, the attention of astronomers and the NOAA SWPC space weather prediction center is focused on a coronal mass ejection (CME) that occurred on July 24. This cloud of plasma and magnetic field ejected from the Sun's corona into interplanetary space is heading towards our planet. Solar wind propagation models predict its arrival on July 27, with potential continued impact on July 28.
The CME is characterized as weak and flank, meaning the main impact of the ejection will pass by Earth, causing only a glancing blow to its magnetosphere. Therefore, strong geomagnetic storms are not expected. Nevertheless, the planetary Kp index may reach values of 5–6, corresponding to G1 (minor) and G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storms. These conditions are just sufficient to cause beautiful auroras at northern latitudes.
Observers in Seattle, Minneapolis, Edinburgh, as well as in southern Canada and Scandinavia, are already preparing for a possible spectacle on the night from Sunday to Monday. The intensity and visibility of the auroras will depend on the orientation of the ejection's magnetic field: if it is directed southward (relative to Earth's magnetosphere), the interaction will intensify, and the probability of bright auroral events will significantly increase.
The solar wind is gradually weakening after passing through a high-speed stream from a coronal hole. The speed has dropped from 535 km/s to 495 km/s, and Earth's magnetic field remains calm for now. This allows for a more accurate prediction of the approaching ejection's impact.
Regions AR4494 and AR4496 remain active on the solar disk. AR4494, with the most complex magnetic field configuration (beta-delta type), continues to grow and shows potential for M-class flares. AR4496, which recently appeared on the eastern limb of the visible disk, is also gaining strength. However, these regions are not generating any significant events at the moment.
The forecast for the next three days remains moderate: overall flare activity is expected to be low to moderate, and the probability of powerful M-class flares, let alone X-class events, remains low. The main interest in the coming days is not solar flares, but the interaction of the incoming CME with Earth's magnetosphere and the possible auroras it may trigger.
