According to estimates by the Ministry of Finance, about 20 million Russians own crypto assets worth 3,7 trillion rubles — roughly 44 billion dollars. This figure, announced by Deputy Minister Ivan Chebeskov at the end of September 2026, looks like a quiet challenge to the official banking system, where sanctions and restrictions are narrowing the usual channels.
Behind the dry numbers lies not mere speculation but a practical necessity. With the disconnection from SWIFT and secondary sanctions, crypto has become a tool for foreign trade settlements — from microelectronics to auto components. A daily turnover of 50 billion rubles shows that the market is no longer marginal but a significant segment of the economy, where people seek workarounds to preserve and move capital.
The state, for its part, is not standing aside. The new law "On Digital Currencies and Digital Rights," which came into force on 1 September, introduces licensing for exchangers, depositories and brokers. By July 2027, criminal liability is planned for illegal operations, while ordinary civil transactions are for now left out of the crosshairs. The goal is obvious: to bring capital back under control, to tax it, and to minimize the risks from foreign stablecoins that could freeze assets.
Interests here intertwine in complex ways. For the ordinary holder, crypto is both a hedge against ruble inflation and a way to diversify savings when bank deposits in foreign currency are limited. For the authorities, it is an opportunity to track flows through domestic platforms and, possibly, to channel part of the funds into a regulated course. Expert estimates are still incomplete: the figures include not only direct wallets but also related financial products.
Imagine a river that finds cracks in a dam: the water still flows, but now the state is trying to install sluices and meters. The new rules require reporting on foreign wallets and introduce limits for unqualified investors — 300 thousand rubles a year per intermediary. This is not a ban but an attempt to tame the element.
Notably, the Ministry of Finance forecasts an influx of another 10 million users as early as 2027, when the market begins to operate in the legal field. However, the accuracy of current estimates remains expert-based rather than a comprehensive census.
In the end, 20 million people are already voting with their wallets for an alternative, and the question is not whether crypto will disappear, but how far the state will manage to integrate it into its financial architecture without losing the trust of participants.
