A survey of 103 sustainability executives by the World Economic Forum shows that, despite conflicts, policy uncertainty and market volatility, 63% expect global progress on sustainability to remain at its current level or accelerate over the next 12 months. This is not mere optimism — it reflects how commercial incentives and technology are gradually pushing political barriers aside in corporate decision-making.
Structural forces define the landscape here: the global green economy already exceeds 5 trillion dollars a year and is estimated to reach 7 trillion by 2030, remaining one of the fastest-growing segments. 64% of respondents cite the strengthening business case as the main accelerator over the next three years, and 56% cite more affordable and applicable technologies. These factors operate regardless of who holds power in individual countries, because companies focus on costs, supply chains and competitiveness.
At present, cyclical factors play a key role: 78% CSOs expect geopolitical and macroeconomic risks to hold back progress, while policy remains the main constraint (68%). However, three-quarters of those surveyed predict that companies' transition investments will remain stable or grow. This points to a "green divergence": some sectors and regions are accelerating thanks to clear economics, while others are slowing amid short-term pressure and uncertainty.
The hidden layer of the situation is the growing role of artificial intelligence and adaptation. 73% CSOs believe AI will accelerate progress through risk modelling, efficiency and reporting, although 77% note the negative impact of AI infrastructure on energy consumption and resources. At the same time, 85% expect adaptation to climate change to become a priority over the next three years, and 77% see a decisive role for private investment in scaling it up. These trends show how sustainability is turning from a separate agenda into a matter of operational resilience and capital allocation.
Historically similar moments — for example, after the financial crisis of 2008–2009 — show that when commercial arguments align with technological possibilities, progress continues even as political support weakens. The difference today is that global supply chains and competition for capital make a rollback more costly than before.
The dominant forces — the business case, technology and corporate investment — converge on the view that progress will be uneven but broadly stable. The most likely outcome over the next 12–18 months: momentum sustained, with growing divergence between sectors and regions where commercial logic is stronger. This will happen because companies increasingly tie sustainability to their own competitiveness and resilience, not only to regulatory requirements.
Two strong counterarguments are a sharp escalation of geopolitical conflicts, capable of disrupting supplies of critical materials, and a sudden tightening of policy in key jurisdictions, which would raise costs. If these factors intensify simultaneously, the forecast may not hold.
The key indicator of whether the forecast is on track will be corporate decisions on transition investment that companies publish in their reports for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027; growth or stability in these figures will confirm the resilience of the commercial driver.
Watch companies' reports on capital expenditure on sustainability — they will show whether business is truly taking on the role of the main engine of progress.
