Newly Discovered Asteroid 2024 YR4 Initially Posed Highest Impact Probability, Now Under Intense Observation

Astronomers are closely monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, a recently discovered near-Earth object. Initially, NASA assessed its potential to collide with Earth in 2032 at 3.1%, the highest probability ever assigned. Subsequent analysis lowered this to 1.5%. The asteroid, estimated to be 40 to 90 meters wide, was first detected on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS telescope in Chile. Observations from Hawaii, Chile, and New Mexico are refining its trajectory. The James Webb Space Telescope will further observe the asteroid's thermal signature in March and May to improve orbit predictions. While current models suggest no threat during its 2028 pass, continued monitoring is crucial. If an impact were to occur, damage could extend up to 50 kilometers from the strike zone, given its potential velocity of 17 kilometers per second. Despite advancements, detecting asteroids of this size remains challenging, with only 2% of an estimated 600,000 similar near-Earth objects identified. Experts remain vigilant, prepared to evaluate mitigation strategies if the risk persists.