On Sunday, 4 October 2026, Brazil held the first round of its presidential election. No candidate secured the required 50% votes, and the race for the head of state will continue on 25 October.
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, received about 47% votes. Incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva received roughly 45%. These figures were confirmed by the electoral court's data with nearly all ballots counted.
Flavio Bolsonaro, representing the right, exceeded poll expectations that had predicted an advantage for Lula. His result opens the way to consolidating the votes of the right-wing and centrist electorate in the runoff.
Lula, who is 80 years old, is running for a fourth term. He acknowledged that he had expected to win in the first round, but expressed confidence in his strength for the next stage: "Tomorrow we begin a new campaign. I play well in a knockout."
Jair Bolsonaro, who lost to Lula in 2022, is serving a 27-year sentence for organizing an attempted coup. Flavio promised amnesty for his father and for the participants in the 8 January riots if he wins.
The election is taking place amid a polarized society. The right also made gains in the parliamentary races, strengthening its position in the Senate. Lula is betting on social programs, while Bolsonaro is betting on fiscal discipline and closer ties with Washington.
Three weeks before the runoff, both candidates will fight for the votes of those who supported other contenders in the first round. Whose plan will prove more convincing to moderate voters?
A victory for Flavio Bolsonaro could strengthen US influence in the region, whereas keeping Lula in power would preserve the course toward partnership with China. The outcome will determine the direction of Latin America's largest economy, with a population of more than 214 million people.
