On Sunday, 4 October, millions of Brazilians will head to the polls. The first round of the presidential election will determine whether the incumbent president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, remains in power or whether Senator Flávio Bolsonaro will lead the country.
The race is shaping up to be tense. Polls show that Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are running virtually neck and neck. If no one wins more than 50% of the votes, a second round will be held on 25 October.
Lula, who is 80 years old, is running for a fourth term. He represents the left-wing Workers' Party and is staking his campaign on social programs and economic development. His opponent is 45-year-old Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after his defeat in 2022.
The election is taking place in the shadow of relations with the United States. Donald Trump's administration imposed additional tariffs on Brazilian goods. Lula called this interference in internal affairs. Flávio Bolsonaro, by contrast, met with Trump at the White House and promised that Brazil would join the "Shield of the Americas" initiative.
The differences are especially striking on foreign policy. Lula is strengthening ties with China and BRICS. Flávio Bolsonaro advocates closer cooperation with Washington in security and trade.
The climate agenda is no less important. Under Lula's leadership, deforestation in the Amazon has fallen by roughly half. Flávio Bolsonaro has said he does not believe in climate change and supports weakening environmental regulations.
Nearly 60% of the Amazon lies within Brazil. The outcome of the election will determine whether the country continues its policy of protecting forests or makes mining and agriculture its priorities.
How will these decisions affect the global climate and regional stability?
Voting is mandatory for most citizens. If necessary, a second round will be held in three weeks. For now, Brazilians are deciding which path their country will take in the years ahead.
