In a world where a startup founded just a year and a half ago is discussing a valuation of 40 billion dollars, money ceases to be merely a measure of profit — it becomes a wager on the rarity of talent and computing power.
Former OpenAI chief technology officer Mira Murati founded Thinking Machines Lab in early 2025. Already in July of that same year, the company raised 2 billion dollars in seed funding at a valuation of 12 billion. Now, according to The Information, negotiations are underway for a round of 5–6 billion dollars at a pre-money valuation of at least 40 billion. Accel, according to reports, may lead the deal, while Nvidia may invest around 2,5 billion.
Traditional metrics do not work here. The company's revenue is estimated in a range from 100 million to several hundred million dollars on an annualized basis — an impressive figure for such a young player, but clearly insufficient to justify a multi-billion valuation by ordinary multiples. Investors are paying above all for access to elite researchers, guaranteed gigawatts of Nvidia computing power, and a strategy of customizing open models through the Tinker platform and the new Inkling model.
Behind this race there is more than just technological optimism. Money here reflects a new logic: in an era when creating cutting-edge models requires industrial-scale infrastructure, those who are first to secure access to chips and talent gain an advantage that is hard to catch up with later. It resembles how oil companies once bought up field licenses long before they began pumping oil. The risk is obvious — an exodus of key employees has already happened, and dependence on a single equipment supplier creates vulnerabilities.
For an ordinary investor or a person thinking about personal finances, the story of Murati and Thinking Machines is a lesson in how reputation and control over scarce resources turn potential into capital. A bet on AI today is like investing in rare land: the price rises not from current dividends, but from the prospect of becoming part of the infrastructure of the future. The only question is whether the company will have enough time to turn that infrastructure into a sustainable cash flow.
Ultimately, such valuations show that in the modern economy money increasingly votes not for a finished product, but for the right to take part in a race where the losers are left without access to key assets.
