As the US presidential election approaches, Kamala Harris's lead over Donald Trump narrows to less than one percentage point. This decline in her initial advantage since mid-August raises concerns among European leaders and analysts about potential shifts in transatlantic relations.
French President Emmanuel Macron has voiced worries that a Trump re-election could undermine Western cooperation, particularly regarding defense, climate change, and trade. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, while taking a more diplomatic stance, has also indicated that a Trump presidency could complicate crucial decisions on these issues.
Analysts suggest that a Trump victory could deteriorate US-European relations, emphasizing his unilateral approach to foreign policy, which may threaten multilateralism and key cooperative efforts. Additionally, it could invigorate populist movements and far-right parties.
Within NATO, concerns are heightened due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. As the primary military actor in the alliance, the US's commitment to collective defense and European security could be uncertain under a Trump administration. During his first term, Trump frequently questioned NATO members' defense spending and hinted at a reevaluation of the US's role in the organization.
In Scandinavia, similar apprehensions arise regarding the implications for foreign policy and international cooperation. Former Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen have expressed that Trump's actions may jeopardize NATO cohesion and complicate transatlantic relations.
European nations, valuing democracy and the rule of law, view Trump's rhetoric against democratic institutions unfavorably. As the electoral campaign culminates on November 5, Europeans are closely monitoring the developments that could dramatically alter not only US domestic policy but also its international relations.