Russian Ruble Strengthens Below 90 Against Dollar Following Putin-Trump Call, Moscow Exchange Rises

The dollar exchange rate has decreased to 89 rubles for the first time since September 2024. The Russian currency surged following discussions between Putin and Trump. According to trading data, the ruble strengthened against the U.S. dollar by 3.5 percent.During Forex trading on Thursday, February 13, the dollar fell below 90 rubles for the first time since September 2024, reaching 89.49 rubles. Concurrently, on the interbank market, the Russian currency fluctuated, peaking at 90.88 rubles per dollar, with the American currency depreciating by over 3 rubles since the start of trading.Analysts suggest that the ruble's rapid strengthening may conclude with a new decline. Fundamental reasons for currency weakening, such as cheaper oil and sanctions, persist, while objective growth factors, like the start of the tax period, are absent.Amidst the phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Donald Trump, the Moscow Exchange index rose by nearly five percent. During morning trading, the MOEX index increased to 3246 points but later corrected to 3189.57, showing a gain of approximately 5.4 percent since the opening.Since the beginning of February, the Moscow Exchange index has grown by 8.25 percent, and since the start of 2025, it has increased by 10.69 percent. The market capitalization increased to 6.9 trillion rubles. Top performers included Gazprom (up 4.3 percent), Seligdar (up 3.53 percent), Polyus (up 2.93 percent), iPositive (up 1.83 percent), and Samolot (1.77 percent).According to RIA Novosti, Stanislav Naumov from the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy explained that experts believe it is essential to support the growth of the Russian export sector with stimulating measures, attracting retail investors and foreign investment funds. He noted that this would override inflationary expectations and potentially allow the Central Bank of Russia to lower rates.Amid negotiations between the U.S. and Russia aimed at optimizing relations regarding the potential cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, European stocks increased. The Stoxx 600 index (including shares of 600 large, medium, and small companies from 17 European countries, covering approximately 90 percent of freely traded shares on the European stock market) rose by 0.5 percent, reaching a record high.According to Suzanne Cruz, a strategist at Panmure Liberum Bloomberg, the cessation of conflict could reduce conflict-related expenses, decrease uncertainty, and potentially increase business and investment confidence, which is crucial for major European economies.Asian-Pacific markets also saw growth, with the Asia-Pacific market index (up 0.6 percent from the previous day's close) and emerging markets MSCI (up 0.2 percent). However, U.S. stock market indicators shifted downward, with S&P 500 futures (covering approximately 500 companies with high capitalization traded on American markets) falling by 0.2 percent. The Nasdaq-100 futures index, comprising the 100 largest companies traded on the exchange, also decreased by 0.1 percent.The phone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and American colleague Donald Trump took place on February 12. According to Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov, the leaders spoke for nearly an hour, focusing on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.Additionally, the press service of the Russian President noted that the parties discussed regional stability, the Iran nuclear program, and the development of bilateral economic relations. Putin and Trump agreed to continue personal contacts, with the head of state inviting his colleague to Moscow.Trump stated that the conversation with Putin was lengthy and productive. According to him, the heads of state agreed that cooperation between Moscow and Washington is more beneficial than continued confrontation, but to restore economic ties, the conflict in Ukraine must end.