Donald Trump's imminent return to the White House has sparked uncertainty in Latin America, marked by diplomatic tensions, protectionist threats, and a stricter stance on migration. Experts caution about the potential impacts on bilateral relations and the geopolitical balance in the region.
Political scientist Daniel Zovatto highlights the structural risks and opportunities, while Colombian analyst Ronal Rodríguez emphasizes the democratic and social implications. Both agree on the complex context requiring coordinated strategies to mitigate negative impacts and seize emerging opportunities.
Trump's presidency could strain bilateral relations, particularly with Mexico and Brazil, while Argentina may benefit from ideological alignment with Trump. Zovatto notes that Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican goods unless the country strengthens its measures against illegal migration and fentanyl trafficking. Such actions could destabilize key sectors like automotive and agriculture.
Diplomatic tensions have also arisen from initiatives like renaming the Gulf of Mexico to 'Gulf of America.' Zovatto warns that if threats materialize, Mexico may respond with trade reprisals.
Regarding Brazil, Zovatto anticipates tensions due to President Lula da Silva's positions on environmental issues, participation in BRICS, and close ties with China, which Trump views as contrary to U.S. interests. However, Lula's pragmatism may help ease frictions.
Argentina's government under Javier Milei could benefit from its ideological alignment with Trump, potentially leading to more flexible support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and progress toward a bilateral trade agreement. Yet, Zovatto cautions that a close relationship with the U.S. could create friction with other regional countries.
Rodríguez considers Mexico will be central to bilateral relations due to migration, drug trafficking, and border dynamics. Trump is expected to focus on this relationship, influenced by internal political context and the role of Mexico's Morena party.
On migration, Trump's return could lead to stricter border control policies, including mass deportation programs and the elimination of humanitarian programs like 'parole' that currently benefit migrants from Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Haiti. Zovatto warns these measures could exacerbate bilateral tensions and economically affect Central American countries reliant on remittances.
Rodríguez adds that the region's migration policy aligns with U.S. interests, shifting from a human rights perspective to a security logic, seeking significant sympathy from the U.S.
In the economic sphere, Trump's protectionist risks, including tariffs and trade agreement reviews, may impact key sectors like energy and agriculture in countries like Mexico. However, opportunities in 'nearshoring' and 'friendshoring' could benefit nations such as Mexico, Costa Rica, and Colombia.
Additionally, Trump's focus on national industry could hinder trade integration advances between Latin America and the U.S. Rodríguez warns that trade is being used as a protectionist weapon, favoring China's strategy in the region.
Geopolitically, Zovatto predicts a hardening of U.S. foreign policy towards authoritarian regimes in Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua, contrasting with the dialogue approach of the Biden administration. Economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and support for opposition will be key strategies.
Rodríguez notes that the lack of U.S. leadership has strengthened authoritarian regimes in the region, concluding that Trump's absence of democratic credentials may increase dictatorial dynamics.