Severe flooding in Central Europe has been linked to climate change, with a recent report indicating that the likelihood of such extreme rainfall has doubled due to global warming. This analysis was conducted by the international research group World Weather Attribution following unprecedented rainfall earlier this month.
The four-day deluge was the heaviest ever recorded in the region, resulting in at least 24 fatalities and displacing thousands of residents. While the total cost of damages remains unclear, estimates suggest it could reach billions of euros.
Researchers examined weather statistics and utilized numerous climate models to assess the impact of climate change on weather patterns. They found that rainfall has increased by 7% as a result of global warming, cautioning that current models may underestimate the true extent of this trend.
If global temperatures rise from the current 1.3 degrees Celsius to 2 degrees, the World Weather Attribution predicts a further 50% increase in the frequency of such extreme weather events, along with a significant rise in rainfall associated with them.
Despite the severity of the rainfall, the number of fatalities was relatively low compared to previous flooding incidents in the region, such as the 1997 and 2002 floods that resulted in over 100 and 232 deaths, respectively.
Gerbrand Koren, a climate researcher at Utrecht University, noted that countries can mitigate some risks associated with climate change. Early warning systems proved effective this time, helping to reduce casualties. Koren himself witnessed these systems in action while attending a workshop in Vienna just before the disaster.
Investment in flood protection measures over the past two decades also played a role in limiting the damage. However, the extreme nature of the rainfall overwhelmed local infrastructure in some areas.
Koren emphasized the significant economic impact of the flooding, highlighting that billions of euros will be needed from the European Union for recovery efforts. He argues that discussions on climate change often overlook the costs of damage that could be avoided by limiting global warming.