India's rice and wheat production is anticipated to decline by 6-10% as a direct consequence of climate change, posing significant challenges to food affordability for millions, according to senior officials.
The warming of sea waters along the coast is compelling fish to migrate to deeper, cooler regions, adversely affecting the fishing community. In the 2023-24 crop year, wheat production reached 113.29 million tonnes, accounting for approximately 14% of global output, while rice harvests exceeded 137 million tonnes. These staples are crucial for the country's 1.4 billion population, with 80% relying on subsidized food grains through government programs.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), stated, "Climate change will reduce the yields of both wheat and rice by 6 to 10%, significantly impacting farmers and the nation's food security." He noted that global warming is also diminishing the frequency and intensity of Western Disturbances, which are essential for winter precipitation in northwest India.
M Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, warned that this trend could lead to severe water shortages for billions living in the Himalayas and adjacent plains. Projections from the National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) indicate that wheat yields may drop by 6-25% by 2100, while irrigated rice yields could decrease by 7% by 2050 and 10% by 2080.
Approximately half of India's population relies on agriculture, with over 80% of farmers classified as small and marginal, owning less than 2 hectares. Rising ocean temperatures are further diminishing fish catches near the coast, creating economic challenges for fishing communities.
Ravichandran remarked that accurate weather predictions are becoming increasingly difficult due to climate-induced atmospheric instability. Extreme weather events are now occurring concurrently over shorter durations in smaller areas. Research indicates that climate change may reduce the lead time for predicting heavy rainfall from three days to just one and a half days.
The decline in the number and intensity of Western Disturbances is contributing to reduced ice accumulation in the Himalayas, while snowmelt is accelerating. "The input is less, and the output is more. This means water availability is decreasing. Over two billion people, including those in India and China, depend on this water. It is a very serious issue, and we should be worried about the future," he cautioned.
The Himalayan and Hindukush mountain ranges, known as the Third Pole, contain the largest freshwater resources outside polar regions, supporting one-seventh of the global population dependent on rivers originating there.
According to IMD data, India's average temperature has risen by approximately 0.7 degrees Celsius from 1901 to 2018. Following global trends, 2024 was recorded as the warmest year in India since 1901, with the average minimum temperature exceeding the long-term average by 0.90 degrees Celsius.