On January 28, 2025, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced that the "Doomsday Clock" has been adjusted to 89 seconds before midnight, the closest it has ever been to global catastrophe. This decision reflects escalating concerns regarding nuclear weapons, climate change, and the military applications of artificial intelligence.
The adjustment is attributed to heightened nuclear threats from Russia amid its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, alongside other global tensions and the potential misuse of emerging technologies. Daniel Holz, chair of the Bulletin's Board on Science and Security, emphasized that the factors influencing this year's decision, including nuclear risk and climate change, have not changed significantly since 2024. However, he noted insufficient progress in addressing these critical challenges.
Holz remarked, "The setting of the Doomsday Clock at 89 seconds to midnight serves as a warning to all world leaders." He highlighted the invasion of Ukraine as a major source of nuclear risk, stating that the conflict could escalate to include nuclear weapons due to hasty decisions or miscalculations.
In November 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin modified nuclear strike guidelines in response to increased conventional attacks, which the Kremlin framed as a warning to the West. This updated doctrine outlines conditions under which Putin could authorize a nuclear strike, raising alarms about global security.
The situation in the Middle East, particularly the conflict in Gaza, remains precarious. Holz expressed hope for the maintenance of a ceasefire, while noting ongoing tensions involving Iran and other regional conflicts. He cautioned that potential flashpoints, such as Taiwan and North Korea, could lead to catastrophic outcomes involving nuclear powers.
Concerns about artificial intelligence have surged, with its rapid advancements raising alarms about military applications. In the U.S., a recent executive order aimed to mitigate national security risks associated with AI, although it was rescinded shortly after by the current administration. Holz warned that AI's growing presence in warfare poses significant risks, particularly regarding nuclear capabilities and the potential for misinformation.
Additionally, 2024 was recorded as the hottest year in history, with the last decade marking the warmest period on record. Despite advancements in renewable energy, experts indicate that current efforts are insufficient to avert the worst impacts of climate change.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was founded in 1945 by notable scientists, including Albert Einstein and J. Robert Oppenheimer, to raise awareness about existential threats to humanity.