On October 8, 2024, reports from the Middle East Eye indicated that Iranian oil tankers have returned to the main export terminal in the Persian Gulf, suggesting that Iran perceives a reduced risk of Israeli attacks on its oil infrastructure. The report cites data from TankerTrackers, noting that two supertankers from the National Iranian Tanker Company are currently loading approximately 5 million barrels of crude oil on Kharg Island.
According to Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, this development indicates that Iranian officials likely believe their oil facilities will not be targeted by Israel. Samir Madani, the executive director of TankerTrackers, stated that the decision to return the tankers signifies Iran's shift to a 'risk reduction' status.
Iran's oil minister, present at Kharg Island, emphasized that they are not afraid of potential crises instigated by adversaries, referring to the visit as a routine work inspection. Tehran has previously warned that it would block the Strait of Hormuz if it felt threatened, a strategic passageway for 20% of the world's oil supply.
While Iran's allies in the 'axis of resistance' face intense pressure from Israel, Houthi forces from Yemen continue their attacks in the Red Sea, demonstrating the capability to target Saudi and Emirati oil facilities. In 2019, Iran was blamed for an attack on Saudi Aramco's oil facilities carried out by the Houthis.
U.S. President Joe Biden stated in a press conference on October 6 that Israel had yet to decide how to respond to Iran's missile attacks, indicating ongoing deliberations. Following a missile strike by Iran on October 1, which involved 180 ballistic missiles, Israeli officials affirmed they would not leave the attack unanswered. Most of the missiles were reportedly intercepted before reaching Israeli territory.
This situation underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East, where oil prices are also affected by the perceived risks of conflict. On the same day, oil prices fell sharply, influenced by the lack of an Israeli strike against Iran, which had previously driven prices higher.