On January 9, 2025, Lebanon is poised to elect a new president following a two-year vacancy in the position. This development comes after a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in late November, which has paved the way for the presidential election and a new executive lineup.
The upcoming election, Lebanon's 13th presidential vote, occurs against a backdrop of severe economic challenges, including a prolonged recession, a collapsing currency, and frozen bank deposits. The ongoing conflict has inflicted significant damage, necessitating urgent consolidation of the ceasefire.
Additionally, there is a pressing need to create conditions for the return of war refugees, particularly many Syrian refugees currently residing in Lebanon. Michael Bauer, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's office in Beirut, emphasized the gravity of the situation, stating that merely agreeing on a candidate based on minimal compromise among political parties is insufficient.
Political factions within Lebanon are under considerable pressure as the election deadline approaches. The complexity of candidate selection is heightened by the country's sectarian distribution of high offices, as the constitution mandates that the president be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shia Muslim.
Joseph Aoun, the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, has emerged as a promising candidate, reportedly gaining support from opposition factions, especially given Hezbollah's newfound willingness to compromise. Until recently, Hezbollah backed Suleiman Franghi, a known ally of former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. However, Hezbollah's new leader, Naim Kassim, has signaled openness to other candidates acceptable to a broader segment of the population.
This shift in Hezbollah's stance is attributed to the impact of the ongoing war with Israel, which has diminished the militia's domestic political influence. Political analyst Ronnie Chatah noted that Hezbollah's acceptance of Aoun's candidacy reflects their inability to block the military commander from ascending to the presidency.
Bauer remarked that Aoun could represent a new, positive force for many Lebanese citizens, potentially garnering the necessary support due to his military background, which may enable him to address emerging security challenges effectively. Chatah concluded that regardless of the election outcome, the critical aspect is for Lebanon to have a new president, which is essential for the country to function effectively.