Starting January 1, Poland will assume the presidency of the European Union Council, overseeing the schedule of meetings and discussions among member states. This leadership role positions Warsaw as a mediator in communications and a representative of the EU in relations with third countries.
For Ukraine, Poland's new responsibilities raise hopes that the next six months will advance its interests in Brussels. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed expectations for accelerated negotiations regarding EU membership. He aims to open at least two negotiation clusters during Poland's presidency, with a long-term goal of opening all clusters next year.
In addition to membership talks, other critical issues for Ukraine had been stalled during Hungary's recent presidency. These include increasing EU sanctions against Russia, providing military assistance, and potentially facilitating negotiations to end the conflict. European experts were consulted regarding whether Poland would advocate for Ukraine's interests in these areas.
Poland's presidency will prioritize four main areas: EU-U.S. relations under President Donald Trump's second term, Ukraine, European defense, and future EU budget negotiations. Poland's representative to the EU, Agnieszka Bartol, assured that Warsaw would actively promote EU enlargement throughout its presidency.
To achieve these priorities, Poland plans to focus on a more politically driven EU, emphasizing the European Council's leadership role over the procedural role of the European Commission. However, experts caution that significant progress in membership negotiations may not be feasible in the short term, as detailed talks and the implementation of EU legislation are required before politically sensitive discussions can commence.
Poland has been a proponent of strict sanctions against Russia since the onset of aggression. The Polish presidency intends to uphold this stance and promptly consider the European Commission's proposal for the 16th sanctions package against Russia, expected to be formally submitted at the end of January.
Recently, ten countries, including Poland, proposed trade restrictions on Russian metals, particularly aluminum, as part of this sanctions package. The suggestion to sanction the Russian aluminum producer Rusal had previously faced opposition during Hungary's presidency.
Poland may play a crucial role in implementing sanctions aimed at reducing imports of Russian liquefied gas and addressing Russia's nuclear energy sector. However, expanding sanctions could be challenging due to the varying sympathies of some EU members towards Russia.
Poland's focus on strengthening European defense, particularly NATO's eastern flank, aligns with Ukraine's interests, especially in light of President Trump's recent statements emphasizing Europe's responsibility in providing military and financial support to Ukraine. Discussions about integrating Ukraine's defense industry into the European defense market are also underway.
Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently indicated that peace negotiations concerning the war in Ukraine could commence this winter, highlighting Poland's readiness to play a leading role during its EU presidency. Warsaw is already involved in discussions within the Weimar Triangle and other formats that include Baltic and Northern European countries, as well as the United Kingdom.
During its presidency, Poland aims to develop a cohesive European strategy for a ceasefire and peace agreement that is acceptable to both Ukraine and the EU. The prospect of Poland coordinating potential negotiations has been influenced by Trump's statements regarding a swift resolution to the conflict.
While Poland's presidency is generally viewed as beneficial for Ukraine, experts caution that the timing coincides with a challenging period for the EU, suggesting that President Zelensky and his team should temper their expectations.