On November 3, 2024, new statistics from Germany's Federal Statistical Office revealed a significant decline in birth rates, with the number of children born per woman dropping to 1.35, down from 1.58 in 2021. This trend is particularly pronounced in the eastern states of the country.
Between January and July 2024, approximately 392,000 children were born in Germany, reflecting a 3% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. The average number of births in 2022 and 2023 was around 693,000, which starkly contrasts with the 795,500 births recorded in 2021.
As a consequence of this decline, hospitals are experiencing a notable shortage of newborn beds, with one in eight currently unoccupied. The number of births had previously peaked at around 800,000 in 2016, with figures falling to 682,000 in 2013 and 737,000 in 2015.
The German Economic Institute (ifo) noted that the birth rate decline from 2021 to 2023 was approximately 13% nationwide, with eastern regions experiencing a more severe drop of 17.5%. This trend is partly attributed to the migration of young women seeking better professional or personal opportunities from east to west.
The overall decline in birth rates is primarily driven by a decrease in the number of women of childbearing age, although a reduction in fertility rates is also evident. Joachim Ragnitz, Vice President of ifo's Dresden branch, suggested that recent crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and rising inflation, have led many young families to postpone plans for children.
Ragnitz emphasized that the decision to have children in Germany is a personal one influenced by cost-benefit considerations and life plans, with the total cost of raising a child until adulthood estimated at around 180,000 euros. Policymakers are urged to focus on reducing costs or enhancing benefits to alter this balance.
The debate on effective measures to address declining birth rates has persisted in Germany for years, oscillating between comprehensive childcare services and individual incentives such as higher child allowances. Social welfare expenditures for families are estimated to cost taxpayers approximately 200 billion euros annually.
Ragnitz also highlighted the need for a societal mindset shift regarding children and families, pointing out the existence of child-free hotels as an example of a prevailing notion that children are disruptive. He called for society to reflect on its approach to children and families, considering both material and immaterial implications.
According to Ragnitz, any legal reforms, economic incentives, or shifts in societal attitudes will likely have a long-term impact on birth rates, with immediate effects unlikely.