The World Trade Organization (WTO) reports that global trade growth could rise by nearly 14 percentage points by 2040 if artificial intelligence (AI) is leveraged to reduce costs and enhance efficiency in global trade networks.
This optimistic scenario assumes widespread adoption of AI technology. If AI deployment is uneven, primarily in developed countries, growth may still increase by 7 percentage points.
Low-income economies stand to benefit significantly, with potential increases in trade growth rates of up to 18.1 percentage points under the most favorable conditions.
However, the report acknowledges that AI development is currently concentrated in a few economies, notably China and the United States, which may widen existing disparities, especially if government subsidies are used to promote these technologies.
For AI to positively impact international trade, the WTO emphasizes the necessity of maintaining a free flow of data to train AI models. Restrictions on data flows could lead to a 5% reduction in global GDP and a 10% decline in exports, according to recent studies.
When effectively utilized, AI can lower costs related to logistics, supply chain management, and regulatory processes. It can also help automate customs processes, navigate complex trade regulations, and predict risks.
Furthermore, AI is expected to drive demand for technology products, with projections indicating that the global market for chips could grow tenfold from its current value of approximately $61.5 billion to $621 billion by 2032.