On October 1, 2024, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) announced a positive economic outlook for Chile, projecting growth for 2024 and 2025 after a year of stagnation. The report indicates that real wage increases, driven by declining inflation and falling interest rates, will boost consumer spending.
The OECD forecasts a production increase of 1.8% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025, attributing this positive trend to improved business confidence and rising demand for minerals, which will support exports. The inflation rate is expected to reach the central bank's target in the second half of 2024, subsequently decreasing at a slower pace.
Chile's economy had previously experienced a significant recovery in 2021, growing by 11.7% thanks to fiscal responses that included pension fund withdrawals and direct fiscal support. However, the labor market recovery has been slower, with inflation pressures stemming from high demand, commodity price increases, supply chain disruptions, and a depreciating peso leading to the highest public debt in three decades at 37%.
This economic forecast is crucial not only for Chile but also for the global market, as the country is a major exporter of copper and other minerals, impacting international prices and trade dynamics.