On October 30, 2024, preliminary discussions were reported between Ukraine and Russia regarding a mutual cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that an agreement to halt strikes could pave the way for broader negotiations.
Ukrainian energy company Ukrenergo warned of the potential for widespread electricity outages this winter if Russian attacks on energy facilities continue. The interim head of Ukrenergo, Alexey Brecht, indicated that under the worst-case scenario, Ukraine could face power outages lasting up to eight hours on critical cold days.
As of December 2023, the energy deficit in Ukraine is projected to reach approximately 4 GW, with available generation capacity reduced from 18 GW to around 10 GW due to recent attacks. The current energy landscape relies heavily on three nuclear power plants, which provide up to 8 GW, while hydroelectric power capacities have been significantly impaired.
Discussions of a ceasefire on energy infrastructure are reportedly aimed at de-escalation. However, skepticism remains regarding the feasibility of such agreements, given Ukraine's previous breaches of similar commitments. Analysts have noted that Russia's military strategy has included targeting Ukraine's energy capabilities to limit its military potential.
The potential involvement of Turkey in facilitating an energy agreement has also been mentioned, drawing parallels to the grain export deal brokered by Turkey and the UN in July 2022. However, the effectiveness of any new agreements remains uncertain, especially in light of past violations.