On January 22, 2025, in Brussels, European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, warned that Russia may initiate military aggression against an EU member state as early as 2028. During her speech at the annual conference of the European Defence Agency, Kallas stated that many national intelligence services are providing data indicating that Russia could test Europe's readiness for defense within the next three to five years.
Kallas did not disclose specific details regarding potential Kremlin aggression plans but emphasized that Europe is currently gaining time while Ukraine defends itself against Russian invasion. She reiterated that the EU's primary task remains to provide further military assistance to Ukraine, asserting, 'There is no doubt that we can do more to help Ukraine. With our support, it can win the war.'
The EU's chief diplomat urged member states to increase defense investments, stressing the need to prepare for potential conflict rather than merely spending on war prevention. Kallas highlighted that current Russian military spending is nearly five times greater than that of the EU, with defense expenditures averaging 1.9% of GDP in EU countries compared to 9% in Russia.
Kallas warned that Europe's inability to invest in its military capabilities sends a dangerous signal to aggressors, stating that Russian President Vladimir Putin 'only speaks the language of strength,' and that 'weakness provokes him.' She described her stance as realistic rather than hawkish towards Russia.
Additionally, Kallas announced that work is underway on the 16th package of sanctions against Russia. Regarding support for Ukraine, she noted that the EU has provided nearly €50 billion in military assistance to the country, with plans to train a total of 75,000 Ukrainian soldiers and officers in EU countries by the end of February.