On November 19, 2024, significant political and economic developments unfolded globally. In a crucial meeting during the G20 summit in Brazil, outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden engaged with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The discussions raised concerns among participants regarding the implications of Donald Trump's potential return to the White House on international relations, particularly with China.
Analysts in Beijing expressed that the outcome of the U.S. election would likely yield similar policies towards China, regardless of whether Trump or Kamala Harris assumed the presidency. Xi Jinping's remarks to Biden emphasized China's stance on Taiwan, reiterating that Washington should refrain from interfering in what Beijing considers its internal affairs.
China's economic situation has deteriorated, with growth rates falling below the government's target of 5.5 percent and youth unemployment exceeding 20 percent. This economic strain has led to various incidents of violence linked to social unrest, including a recent attack on schoolgirls in Zhuhai.
In light of these challenges, Xi attempted to garner European support by promising open access to the Chinese market, a commitment that has been made by previous leaders but has not materialized in practice. Meanwhile, Trump's anticipated return to power may reinforce a hardline approach towards China, as indicated by his choice of national security advisor and secretary of state, both known for their hawkish stances.
As the global community watches these developments closely, the potential shift in U.S. foreign policy under Trump could reshape the geopolitical landscape, particularly in relation to China and Taiwan.