The global demand for energy is rising, with solar energy accounting for an increasing share. While coal (35%) and gas (22%) still dominate global electricity generation, solar has grown from 1% of the global energy mix in 2015 to 6% today. In 2023, new photovoltaic installations worldwide reached a total capacity of 447 gigawatts (GW), marking a 38% increase in global solar energy generation to 1,624 GW within just one year.
During the same period, the expansion of wind energy (+117 GW) and coal power plants (+70 GW) was significantly lower, primarily in China and India. Hydropower (+7 GW), natural gas (+6 GW), and biomass (+4 GW) also saw lesser growth, while global nuclear capacity fell by 2 GW due to the decommissioning of older plants.
Forecasts indicate that solar energy expansion will continue significantly worldwide, with predictions of an annual 20% increase in installations over the next five years. By 2028, global solar capacity is expected to reach 5,117 GW, surpassing the combined installed capacity of coal, gas, oil, and nuclear plants, currently around 4,930 GW.
Mass production in Chinese factories has drastically reduced module prices, leading to an over 80% drop in solar energy generation costs globally over the past 15 years. In sunny regions, solar energy can be generated at costs between €0.035 and €0.054 per kWh. In less sunny countries like Germany, costs range from €0.041 to €0.069 per kWh, significantly lower than electricity from new gas, coal, or nuclear plants.
Solar expansion is particularly pronounced in Asia, especially in China, which connected new photovoltaic systems with a capacity of 253 GW to its grid in 2023, raising its national capacity to 656 GW. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), photovoltaic systems currently cover about 10% of China's electricity needs, with an additional 299 GW expected to be added this year.
Despite relying on coal for 61% of its energy, China is projected to reduce coal generation and, consequently, CO2 emissions. Solar energy is also booming in other countries: Australia is forecasted to reach 36 GW of solar capacity by the end of 2023, generating 15% of its electricity. Japan (90 GW) and India (90 GW) meet about 12% and 11% of their electricity demand from solar, respectively.
In Latin America, Chile (9 GW) covers around 20% of its electricity needs with solar, while Brazil (39 GW) meets 11%. The United States (173 GW) and Mexico (11 GW) each cover 6% of their electricity needs with solar. The European Union will have a total solar capacity of 269 GW by the end of 2023, with solar accounting for about 10% of the EU's electricity mix.
In Africa and the Middle East, regions with significant solar potential, photovoltaic energy is currently underutilized, but this is expected to change rapidly. By 2028, capacity is projected to quadruple from the current 48 GW to 222 GW.
Researchers have estimated that the Earth could be powered entirely by renewable energy at low cost. A study published in the journal Science suggests that 104,000 GW of solar capacity would be needed globally, 50 times the current installed capacity. Solar energy experts believe this transition is feasible by 2050, or even sooner, if solar expansion accelerates.
Additionally, CO2 removal from the atmosphere is essential to maintain the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, according to a UN report.