Masoud Pezeshkian, the President of Iran, is set to make his first visit to the West on September 24, 2024, to participate in the United Nations General Assembly. This visit comes just over a month before the U.S. presidential elections, which could potentially lead to another defeat for former President Donald Trump, a staunch opponent of negotiations with Iran.
According to Reuters, citing three informed Iranian officials, Pezeshkian will convey a message to the West that "Tehran is open to diplomacy," while emphasizing that Iran will not yield to Western pressures. Iranian leaders are hopeful for a reduction in U.S. sanctions concerning their nuclear program, yet relations have further deteriorated following Hamas's attack on southern Israel on October 7 and Iran's support for Russia in the war against Ukraine.
Despite a reduction in threats of retaliation for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, recent explosions targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon have cast a shadow of concern over escalating regional tensions during the UN General Assembly.
In this context, Iran has accelerated its nuclear program while simultaneously limiting international monitoring of its facilities. Britain, France, and Germany, the three European powers that signed the 2015 nuclear deal, are now adopting a stricter policy to exert more pressure on Tehran to return to negotiations, fearing that the focus on the U.S. elections could embolden Iran, leaving little space for diplomacy.
Reports suggest that Pezeshkian may have limited authority to make concessions to the West, as the country's nuclear and foreign policies are dictated by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. It remains uncertain whether European and Iranian officials can find common ground in New York.
An anonymous Iranian official stated that the Iranian government believes that the "tense deadlock with the West over its nuclear program must end," but not under Western pressure, rather from a position of strength in negotiations.
Claudia Davenport from the Arms Control Association told Reuters that significant negotiations before the U.S. elections seem unlikely, but temporary steps, such as easing some sanctions in exchange for expanded monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency, may be feasible. She noted that "de-escalation remains possible," which would benefit both sides.
The Iranian leader expressed willingness to resume nuclear talks with the West in a speech last month, and the appointment of Abbas Araqchi as Iran's foreign minister has been interpreted as a positive signal, given his role as a key architect of the nuclear deal.
However, doubts persist regarding Pezeshkian and Araqchi's ability to achieve tangible results with European officials during the UN Assembly's side meetings. Europeans feel that Khamenei is unlikely to change his course, making a broader agreement that encompasses Iran's nuclear program and geopolitical role currently unrealistic.
Concerns have intensified particularly following Iran's missile and drone attacks on Israel and claims that Iran has supplied ballistic missiles to Russia.
One European diplomat told Reuters that Europe seeks a small step forward in exchange for a reciprocal action, suggesting that the resumption of negotiations would essentially be a trade-off rather than a transformation.
However, an Iranian official indicated that Tehran is open to the idea of "giving less in exchange for receiving less," acknowledging that conditions are significantly worse than in 2015.
Western leverage over Iran is diminishing, and a review of current policies regarding Iran will depend on whether the next U.S. administration is led by Trump or Harris, which could take time.
A senior European official warned that the main pressure tool against Iran "may gradually dissipate," necessitating immediate pressure on the country.
While the three European countries have yet to make a definitive decision on activating the snapback mechanism against Iran, they proposed reinstating pressure on Iran before the U.S. government changes at the end of January, following frustrations with the Biden administration's handling of Iran issues.
European diplomats and a U.S. official told Reuters that the Biden administration has kept the Iran file away from the President's desk to prioritize other issues.
Abbas Araqchi also stated that Americans are not ready for serious negotiations as the elections approach, but Iran will initiate contact with Europeans if necessary and will not wait for the U.S.
U.S. State Department spokesperson emphasized that the United States is "closely coordinating with the European trio (Germany, Britain, and France) regarding the approach towards Iran, including its nuclear advancements." However, the reality is that the 2015 nuclear agreement is effectively dead, and unlike when there was international unity for a deal with Iran alongside China and Russia, that coordination no longer exists.
Ali Vaez, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, expressed skepticism about the outcomes of these negotiations, arguing that given past experiences, reaching an agreement between both sides to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions is likely to be more challenging.
With the current circumstances and rising tensions in the Middle East, it remains unclear what achievements Pezeshkian's visit to the U.S. will yield. He previously emphasized in an article in Tehran Times the importance of "constructive engagement with the world" and expressed readiness for "constructive dialogue with European countries." In his first press conference, he stated regarding sanctions: "We adhere to the frameworks we agreed upon with the U.S. and Europe." He added, "If the U.S. respects our rights, we can engage with them like our neighbors. They should not humiliate us because we do not accept humiliation... They have issues with us and have imposed sanctions, establishing military bases around us. We have no problem with them at all."
However, the UN General Assembly will clarify what the Supreme Leader's policy regarding the desired "engagement" is.