Ecuadorians went to the polls on Sunday, February 5th, to elect a new president in a country grappling with violence fueled by drug trafficking, economic hardship, and a divided electorate. The election pits two contrasting candidates against each other: Luisa González, a leftist candidate backed by former President Rafael Correa, and Daniel Noboa, the incumbent president.
Despite a ban on publishing polls, several firms predict a close race, suggesting that neither candidate will secure a majority in the first round, leading to a runoff election on April 13th. The winner will need to address a country facing a severe economic crisis and a surge in violence, with a homicide rate of 38 per 100,000 inhabitants.
The campaigns were marked by heightened security measures, with candidates facing threats and concerns about potential attacks. González has publicly stated receiving threats and intelligence reports indicating risks to her life. The country's borders have been closed and militarized until Monday, with emergency services issuing warnings about potential threats to democracy.
Ecuadorians are casting their ballots for president and vice president, 151 members of the National Assembly, and five Andean parliamentarians. The election marks a rematch between Noboa, 37, and González, 47, with González aiming to become the country's first female president. Noboa, the son of a banana magnate, surprised many when he was elected in 2023 despite limited political experience.
Noboa's brief but turbulent presidency has been marked by power outages due to a historic drought, diplomatic disputes with Mexico, and allegations of excessive force by security forces in the fight against crime. The country's debt burden is approaching 57% of GDP, according to the IMF, and the economic outlook remains bleak.
Analysts warn that the country's current state, characterized by violence, economic hardship, and a polarized political landscape, is discouraging investment and hindering job creation. The election will determine the path Ecuador takes in the coming years, with voters facing a stark choice between two contrasting visions for the future.