On December 18, 2024, European leaders convened in Brussels with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte to discuss peace initiatives and the potential deployment of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine, ahead of the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump in January.
Attendees included German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Polish President Andrzej Duda, European Council President Antonio Costa, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The meeting followed pressure from Trump on European nations to monitor any future peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia by sending troops to Ukraine.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer were also reported to participate, with the meeting taking place alongside the EU-Western Balkans summit in Brussels.
Trump's impending return to office raises concerns among European officials regarding various issues, including security, trade, and the EU's stance on China. The immediate focus remains on Ukraine, particularly given Trump's stated goal of resolving the conflict within 24 hours.
European leaders have agreed on a singular priority: to persuade Trump that Ukraine must enter negotiations from a position of strength, as a poor deal could undermine its international standing.
While this argument is being advanced by Rutte and several EU leaders, it is deemed unlikely that Trump will be swayed by this perspective alone. Consequently, discussions have begun on proposals aimed at garnering Trump's sympathy.
One of the EU's primary concerns is that negotiations regarding Ukraine's future may lead to immediate territorial losses and further Russian advances in the east, potentially increasing the number of Ukrainian refugees in the EU and jeopardizing Kyiv's NATO aspirations, along with its EU membership ambitions.
EU officials believe that a recently agreed G7 loan of €50 billion will extend until the end of 2025, indicating that any new funding would signal ongoing support for Ukraine through 2026 and 2027.
However, securing additional financial support for Ukraine poses challenges. The EU is exploring various options to provide further financial assistance, as reported by Politico. One proposal involves lending money to Kyiv at preferential rates and extended repayment periods, utilizing available space in the EU budget.
Another option is to enhance the EU's borrowing capacity against this space, with member states providing financial guarantees, modeled after the €100 billion SURE facility designed for temporary emergency support.
Other possibilities include the European Stability Mechanism, which retains a lending capacity of €422 billion, and potentially reusing unspent NextGenerationEU funds, of which only 41% have been utilized for post-pandemic recovery and resilience, amounting to €650 billion so far.
As Ukraine's larger expenditures will likely involve increased arms purchases from the U.S., some EU capitals may oppose this direction. Certain policymakers in Brussels advocate for a more comprehensive package that combines substantial funding for Ukraine with security, defense, and trade concessions from the EU, such as purchasing more U.S. liquefied natural gas and agricultural products, alongside aligning more closely with the U.S. stance on China.
EU institutions and member states recognize the challenges posed by Trump, and it appears that providing further financial support to Ukraine is inevitable, forming a critical aspect of the bloc's broader approach.