Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have finally disconnected from the Russian electricity grid, marking a significant step for the Baltic states and the European Union as a whole. The disconnection, which took place on February 8th, comes ten months ahead of schedule.
While the Baltic states have not purchased electricity from Russia or Belarus since May 2022, the move is symbolic, demonstrating their commitment to energy independence from Russia. Consumers are not expected to notice any difference or experience disruptions.
To strengthen their electricity systems, the Baltic states have been gradually integrating into the common system of the Continental European grid, the second largest synchronized network in the world after China. They will be the last EU countries to join the system, which also includes Turkey, Ukraine, and Moldova.
For over five decades, the Baltic states were integrated into the former Soviet Union's power grid. The BRELL network, a shared grid that connected the electricity systems of Russia, including its Kaliningrad region, Belarus, and the three Baltic states, was a historical anomaly after the Soviet era. The name BRELL is derived from the initials of these countries.
The Soviet Union recognized the independence of the Baltic states in 1991. Opening up to Europe and the EU became a strategic goal for them, but disconnecting from the integrated energy network took time.
All three countries joined the EU and NATO in 2004 and now use the euro as their official currency. Together, they have a population of just over 6.1 million, making them small compared to European giants like Germany with over 84.5 million inhabitants or neighboring Poland with over 38 million.
Kaspars Melnis, Latvia's Minister of Climate and Energy, told DW that the Baltic countries are a "small electricity market" in business terms, so the disconnection project is about "defense, energy security, independence, and the economy." He points to the events in Ukraine: "The decision to disconnect was the right one," he says. Melnis doesn't expect the departure from the BRELL system to affect electricity prices. In any case, new renewable energy sources could mean lower prices by the end of the year, he believes.
By connecting all their facilities to the EU's electricity grid, the three countries are not only strengthening their European ties but also further distancing themselves from Russia. Since gaining independence, they have been wary of the Kremlin and its influence in the region. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow halted natural gas supplies and began systematically destroying Ukraine's energy infrastructure. This forced Europe, including the Baltic states, to invest in non-Russian alternatives to secure their energy supply.
As Kristine Berzina, Managing Director of Geostrategy North at the German Marshall Fund, points out, before the war in Ukraine, it was questioned whether it was "worth" disconnecting from the Russian grid. "Citizens don't like to pay extra for energy infrastructure, and it's hard for politicians to explain why changes are necessary if everything seems to be working," she explains in an interview with DW.
However, Russian aggression forced the Baltic states to take action to ensure a continuous flow of electricity. "Being connected means being connected to an adversary who claims that the Baltic states should not exist," says Berzina. "Staying in this connection meant weakness."
Furthermore, the suspected sabotage of key undersea cables in the Baltic Sea has put Europe and NATO in a difficult position and led to increased maritime surveillance. This incident in the Baltic Sea was not isolated, and experts have been warning for months about hybrid warfare against Europe from Russia.
For the Baltic states, energy independence means diversifying energy supplies, diversifying their energy basket, and using more renewable sources, such as solar and wind power. This will also make it easier for them to participate in the EU's common energy market.
By 2030, the EU aims to ensure that all members can import or export at least 15% of the electricity produced on their territory to other member states. Brussels has supported the Baltic states with investments worth €1.23 billion in connections to Europe, which will give Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia more energy supply options. A wider energy mix will ensure a steady flow of electricity for them.
The main connection of the Baltic states to the EU grid will be through the LitPol Link energy bridge, which connects Poland and Lithuania.
In addition, the three countries are connected to a separate Scandinavian electricity market. Lithuania has an undersea connection to Sweden called NordBalt, while Estonia has two direct undersea connections to Finland - Estlink 1 and Estlink 2, with a third to be completed by 2035.
However, the Estlink 2 cable was damaged in December last year, drastically reducing the capacity between Estonia and Finland. A day after the incident, the European Commission issued a statement stating that the ship suspected of damaging the cable belonged to the Russian shadow fleet.
The Commission quickly stated that the attack on critical infrastructure would not stop the planned disconnection from the Russian grid due to the additional power that the Baltic states have accumulated over the years. "There is no threat to energy security in the region," the Commission wrote in a statement.
Kristine Berzina confirms that over the past two decades, the three Baltic states have "done a lot" to secure their energy supplies, while simultaneously enabling "greater competition in the electricity sector." As the expert emphasizes, in connection with the "derussification" of energy sources and routes, "competition policy in the energy sector has a very strong geopolitical significance."