Japan is experiencing its most significant rice shortage in decades due to a combination of extreme weather, rising tourist demand, and high import tariffs. This crisis has led to empty supermarket shelves and skyrocketing prices.
As reported by CNBC on September 26, 2024, heavy rainfall during the summer has drastically reduced rice production, while the influx of tourists seeking to enjoy Japanese cuisine has further strained supply. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) noted that Japan's rice reserves have fallen to their lowest levels in over 20 years, exacerbated by a 778% tariff on imported rice aimed at supporting local farmers.
In August 2024, many supermarkets reported being out of white rice, with some limiting purchases to one bag per customer. The price of rice surged to 16,133 yen (approximately $112.67) per kilogram, marking a 3% increase from the previous month and a 5% rise since the beginning of the year.
Data from Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) revealed that private rice stocks in June 2024 were only 1.56 million tons, a significant drop compared to previous years. The increase in tourist consumption of rice, which rose from 19,000 tons to 51,000 tons over the past year, has compounded the crisis.
Japan welcomed a record 17.8 million tourists in the first half of 2024, far exceeding pre-pandemic levels. This trend continues, with 3.3 million visitors in July alone. Additionally, a declining number of young people entering agriculture due to an aging farmer population has contributed to the production decline.
Japan's commitment to import at least 682,000 tons of rice annually under World Trade Organization (WTO) obligations is not alleviating the domestic crisis, as most imported rice is used for processing and animal feed rather than direct consumer sales. Conversely, rice exports have surged sixfold from 2014 to 2022, reaching nearly 30,000 tons.
The rising rice prices have also contributed to inflation in Japan, which increased by 2.8% in August 2024 compared to the previous year.