A Senate Republican super PAC aligned with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is investing $67.5 million in critical races across Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, aiming to dismantle the Democrats' 'blue wall' ahead of the upcoming elections.
With fewer than 35 days until the election, the Senate Republican Leadership Fund is launching extensive ad campaigns targeting key Democratic incumbents, including Senators Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), as well as an open seat in Michigan left by retiring Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.).
The largest allocation of funds, $28 million, will be directed towards Pennsylvania, where GOP candidate Dave McCormick has recently narrowed the polling gap against Casey to within the margin of error, according to a Washington Post poll. This investment follows an earlier expenditure of $24 million on ads since June.
Additionally, $22.5 million is earmarked for Senate candidate Mike Rogers in his contest against Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), while $17 million will support GOP hopeful Eric Hovde's campaign against Baldwin.
This financial boost is part of a broader Republican strategy to regain control of the Senate, currently held by Democrats with a slim 51-49 majority. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report indicates that Republicans have at least 50 likely or safe Senate seats, with key races in Montana and Ohio also drawing significant funding.
Internal polling from the Senate Leadership Fund suggests that races in the traditionally Democratic strongholds of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan are becoming increasingly competitive. Former President Donald Trump's rising poll numbers could further influence these down-ballot races, as he previously won all three states in 2016 but lost them to Joe Biden in 2020.
In contrast, the Senate Majority PAC, associated with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), has outspent Republicans significantly, with $239 million allocated for close races, including $100 million for Ohio and Pennsylvania alone.
McConnell, who plans to step down as Senate minority leader after this election, expressed concerns about Democrats potentially removing historic precedents like the 60-vote filibuster if they maintain control of both the Senate and the White House. During the Democratic National Convention, Schumer suggested that a Democratic trifecta would enable his party to push through significant legislative measures, including federal abortion rights and greater federal oversight of elections.
The 2022 midterms saw Republicans regain control of the House, complicating President Biden's ability to advance his agenda without bipartisan support. The Senate Leadership Fund has chosen not to invest in certain races considered likely Republican victories, focusing instead on the most competitive contests.